POLITICAL BLOG BECOMES POLITICAL PAGE

I'm changing the way that I'm organizing my blogging. This Political Blog has been one of four stand-alone blogs that I've been trying to manage. It is now inactive, an archive. Going forward, I'm consolidating everything in my primary blog - France, Food, Scooters and More - with pages that consolidate the various related topics. You'll see the index of pages, as well as a link back to this archive, on the left-hand side of the Home page.

Thanks for finding me. I'll try to keep you entertained.

PEGGY NOONAN'S SURPRISING PRESCRIPTION FOR REPUBLICANS

In the Wall Street Journal today, Peggy Noonan urges Republicans to become pirates...to put sabres between their teeth, do the unexpected and go on the offensive. Republicans, says Noonan, have no coherent message. They are primarily represented by their Congressional leaders and Congress is less popular with the American people than cockroaches. They have no compelling messenger at the podium. And they are up against a President who was recently re-elected and whose approval rating is above 50%.

What to do?

According to Noonan, the prescription is to get going on the policy side. Demonstrate that Republicans can act on issues that are important to the American people. Don't wait. Be pirates. Attack.

Choose Main Street over Wall Street. Confront the perception that the Party is in the pocket of the bankers and the rich. If banks are too big to fail, break them up. End the preferential tax treatment given to hedge fund managers and folks whose income is derived mainly from capital gains, dividends and interest.

Take the point on immigration reform, says Noonan. Champion border security, yes. But include a path to citizenship. The world is changing. Immigrants, legal or illegal, learn to love our country. They fight our wars. Bring them into the tent.

In sum, Noonan's surprising prescription to elevate conservative Republicans in the eyes of the electorate is that they become progressive Democrats.

IT'S ROMNEY

While I was on vacation, Santorum failed to close the deal. He was too scary even for the Republicans. Of course, saying that Romney closed the deal may be overstating the case. His inability to garner more than 50% of primary voters in any state until the sideshow geeks were the only opposition left standing would be troubling except for the fact that Republicans are herd animals.

Herd animals stand on the sidelines while adversaries for top dog duke it out, then fall in line docilely behind the winner. It would seem that the herd scenario is being played out by the Republicans, but there may be a caveat or two to consider. Can Romney run away from Romneycare, from the perception that he’s just another effete, privileged Massachusetts liberal in Tea Party clothing? Will the Tea Party rally back to him? Does the Tea Party matter anymore?

Don’t be silly. Of course the Tea Party matters. If nothing else, the Tea Party has pulled the Republican Party hard right and taken the national conversation along with it.

Anybody but Obama. That will be the subtext – and in some cases the explicit message – to every bit of advertising, every speech, every Fox News commentary for the next five months.

Will it be enough? Predictions will have to wait just a bit longer. Right now? Too close to call.

I TOLD YOU SANTORUM WAS DANGEROUS!

It looks as though it's come down to Santorum and Romney. And it looks like Santorum is pulling away. What about Newt? C'mon. You really didn't believe that he'd last, did you?

If it is indeed the case that Santorum takes the Republican nomination, the American people will have a much clearer choice than if Romney were to win.

Romney would have a much easier time moving to the Center after the primaries. Reasonable people, reasonably cynical people, could argue that Romney had moved to the Right in order to satisfy the Republican base. Even if Romney would have trouble harking back to his moderate approach as governor of Massachusetts, his surrogates could and would make that very argument. And his surrogates will have plenty of money to both chop down Obama and explain away the schizophrenia apparent in Romney's political life.

Santorum is not principled and consistent in the same way as Ron Paul. Paul can easily navigate through a policy stance that opposes federal laws against recreational drug use while holding the personal view that recreational drug use is wrong-headed and that the states have the right to regulate it. It's a true Libertarian, Constitution-grounded position. Santorum, on the other hand, is an unreconstructed social  conservative without care for true conservative principles.

Santorum only wants the government out of our lives as long as we're living the life that he wants us to live. As a cynical, ambitious politician, Santorum can support federal anti-drug legislation, he can tell us who we can sleep with and who we can marry, and still portray himself as someone who is for personal freedom. In that way, he draws a clear contrast with Obama.

In that way, he may be Obama's best hope for re-election.

POST-FLORIDA THOUGHTS

While the media gives us Mitt triumphant, he couldn't pull 50% of the vote after he and his 'uncoordinated' Super Pac dumped millions of dollars of vicious bile on Newt and the good people of Florida. If he doesn't do better than that soon, there may be an opening...a very narrow window...for the Right to rally behind a single candidate. That candidate would not be Newt, so we're talking about Santorum. And that won't happen. So we're back to where we started.

It's Mitt's to lose. He hasn't won it yet. He's still trying hard not to lose it.

WHITHER THE PUBS AFTER IA AND NH?

Now that the appetizers are open, we're ready for the main course...not South Carolina by itself but the long grind that will take the field down to a final two or three. Here's a shot at handicapping the field after simply describing them in my previous post.

MITT: The nomination is his to lose and he seems to be trying awfully hard to make that happen. Yes, he won both opening rounds, but not getting past 40% in a neighbor state in which he's been campaigning since the year the cow had the two-headed calf has to make his sleep at night a bit twitchy. If he doesn't slam dunk something soon, he's going to look vulnerable. Ask Hillary how that felt at the beginning of a Presidential campaign that was hers to lose.

RON PAUL: 20 - 25% is solid, but that's it. And that's not enough to take him all the way. He will NOT be the Republican Party's nominee. How long he stays in the Republican primaries before he decides to drop out and take his shot as the Libertarian candidate - or if he decides not to take a shot at all - will affect how long that it takes to trim down the rest of the field. The longer he stays, the less oxygen is available to the rest of the field.

RICK PERRY: Are you serious? Perry? He has less chance than Paul. He's got money, he's a Texan, and his ego is unquestioned. But if he becomes the Flavor of the Month again, I'll eat my stetson.

NEWT: Worthy of investigation by the Journal of Psychiatric Research, Newt is...well...worthy of investigation by the Journal of Psychiatric Research. Running for President requires a massive ego. Ego is the least of Newt's problems. He will say or do ANYTHING to appear relevant. Then he'll deny he said or did what he said or did. People will catch on and he'll flame out. There's a chance he'll be the ABM (Anybody But Mitt) to the end, but it's a very small chance.

SANTORUM: Dangerous. He's a sincere political conservative. He's a sincere social conservative. He's dumb as a post. But he doesn't carry Newt's baggage. He could attract a big chunk of money that would rather not bankroll Mitt or Newt. And money makes any candidate dangerous. Santorum is Shrub with convictions. And Shrub was elected President. TWICE.

HUNTSMAN: Intriguing. In years past, the Republican Party might have embraced him. This year, unless the Center Right gets its act together in ways that they seldom do in primaries these days, unless the ABM folks decide to embrace sanity over wedge issues and sound bytes, Huntsman is a voice in the wilderness. Will he be able to last until the ABM crowd decides to roll the dice with him? Probably not.

PALIN: Please enter the race. Please. Please. Please. Please. Please.

THE REPUBLICANS: Quick Takes One Week Before Iowa

Mitt & Newt: Weather vanes. No clear anchor. They want to be elected. I'm not certain that they're that interested in governing.

Bachmann & Perry: Loony Toons. That's all. Just Loony Tunes. Toons. Whatever.

Ron Paul: Dedicated and principled. Some golden nuggets in with the mud. Too bad there's so much mud and so few nuggets.

Santorum: An adolescent hoping that the adults will start paying him attention.

Huntsman: A Democrat as far as the Republican primary electorate is concerned.