WHITHER THE PUBS AFTER IA AND NH?

Now that the appetizers are open, we're ready for the main course...not South Carolina by itself but the long grind that will take the field down to a final two or three. Here's a shot at handicapping the field after simply describing them in my previous post.

MITT: The nomination is his to lose and he seems to be trying awfully hard to make that happen. Yes, he won both opening rounds, but not getting past 40% in a neighbor state in which he's been campaigning since the year the cow had the two-headed calf has to make his sleep at night a bit twitchy. If he doesn't slam dunk something soon, he's going to look vulnerable. Ask Hillary how that felt at the beginning of a Presidential campaign that was hers to lose.

RON PAUL: 20 - 25% is solid, but that's it. And that's not enough to take him all the way. He will NOT be the Republican Party's nominee. How long he stays in the Republican primaries before he decides to drop out and take his shot as the Libertarian candidate - or if he decides not to take a shot at all - will affect how long that it takes to trim down the rest of the field. The longer he stays, the less oxygen is available to the rest of the field.

RICK PERRY: Are you serious? Perry? He has less chance than Paul. He's got money, he's a Texan, and his ego is unquestioned. But if he becomes the Flavor of the Month again, I'll eat my stetson.

NEWT: Worthy of investigation by the Journal of Psychiatric Research, Newt is...well...worthy of investigation by the Journal of Psychiatric Research. Running for President requires a massive ego. Ego is the least of Newt's problems. He will say or do ANYTHING to appear relevant. Then he'll deny he said or did what he said or did. People will catch on and he'll flame out. There's a chance he'll be the ABM (Anybody But Mitt) to the end, but it's a very small chance.

SANTORUM: Dangerous. He's a sincere political conservative. He's a sincere social conservative. He's dumb as a post. But he doesn't carry Newt's baggage. He could attract a big chunk of money that would rather not bankroll Mitt or Newt. And money makes any candidate dangerous. Santorum is Shrub with convictions. And Shrub was elected President. TWICE.

HUNTSMAN: Intriguing. In years past, the Republican Party might have embraced him. This year, unless the Center Right gets its act together in ways that they seldom do in primaries these days, unless the ABM folks decide to embrace sanity over wedge issues and sound bytes, Huntsman is a voice in the wilderness. Will he be able to last until the ABM crowd decides to roll the dice with him? Probably not.

PALIN: Please enter the race. Please. Please. Please. Please. Please.